Jamaica’s recent economic growth is seen as a potential miracle by some, but others attribute it to effective policymaking in a supportive political environment despite many challenges. However, an alternative perspective could argue that Jamaica’s economic recovery came at the expense of preparedness for the effects of climate change. With climate change continually posing new dangers to Jamaica’s core sectors of agriculture and tourism, the country’s economic future may become more problematic.
Throughout the 1970s, successive Jamaican governments ran chronic budget deficits due to external events beyond their control. The country suffered from the 1973 oil price shock, which raised import costs and led to a recession and devaluation. As an oil importer, this forced increased borrowing to purchase critical imports. The situation worsened when U.S. interest rates increased in the early 1980s, causing Jamaica’s debt service payments to exports ratio to rise from 16 percent in 1977 to 35 percent by 1986. Debt servicing accounted for over 40 percent of government spending by 1985 due to rising debt levels. To address this issue, Jamaica sought bailout loans from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in the 1980s with harsh austerity measures attached as conditions. Austerity resulted in significant cuts to public sector employment and public investment by the government, leading average growth rates dropping from 2.3 percent in the
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