The Index of Leading Economic Indicators is a crucial tool for economists to forecast the direction of the economy. In October, this indicator fell, signaling a possible recession on the horizon according to The Conference Board. However, despite its decline for 19 months without any recession occurring, many experts have been adjusting their predictions.
One reason for this is that consumer spending has remained stronger than expected. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, an economist at The Conference Board, explains that this has helped keep us out of a recession so far. She still predicts a recession early next year but believes it will be short due to the lack of dramatic declines in manufacturing and the housing market.
On the other hand, U.S. economist Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics no longer predicts a recession for this month. He still anticipates an increase in unemployment and labor conditions to soften but now believes a soft landing is more likely. This shows how fluid economic conditions can be and how quickly experts can change their predictions based on new data.
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