Morgan Stanley has recently joined other financial institutions in predicting that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will continue to tighten at a slower pace. According to Hande Kucuk, Morgan Stanley’s CEEMEA Economist, the company estimates that the policy rate will increase by 250 basis points in the next meeting. Despite the lack of specific forward guidance from the CBRT, Morgan Stanley anticipates that the pace of tightening will slow down.
The note also mentions that the CBRT prefers a moderate adjustment in growth and delays in monetary transmission, leading to the prediction that the bank will likely reduce the rate of tightening and evaluate the impact of cumulative steps on economic activity and inflation.
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