The numbers: The U.S. major financial index fell .three% in February — the 11th decline in a row — continuing to signal an upcoming recession.

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a .four% drop.

The major financial index, also recognized as the LEI, is a gauge of ten indicators created to show irrespective of whether the economy is having greater or worse. The report is published by the nonprofit Conference Board.

Massive image: The economy has slowed due to the finish of pandemic stimulus and the effects of higher inflation, which has forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest prices.

Larger borrowing expenses generally tame inflation, but at the expense of weaker financial development.

Even though the major index has been signaling a recession for months, the economy is nevertheless expanding. A significant query is irrespective of whether the most current banking crisis ends up becoming a tipping point. So far, regulators seem to have contained the harm.

Important specifics: Eight of the ten indicators tracked by the Conference Board fell in February.

A measure of present financial circumstances, meanwhile, rose a scant .1% in February.

The so-referred to as lagging index — a appear in the rearview mirror — also improved by .1%.

Searching ahead: “The major financial index nevertheless points to danger of recession in the U.S. economy,” mentioned Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of organization cycle indicators at the board.

“The most current monetary turmoil in the U.S. banking sector is not reflected in the LEI information but could have a adverse influence on the outlook if it persists,” she mentioned.

Industry reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Typical
DJIA,
-1.23%
and S&ampP 500
SPX,
-1.06%
fell in Friday trading amid nagging worries about the U.S. monetary technique immediately after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.