Oil prices have remained elevated this year due to supply cuts from OPEC+ and tensions in the Middle East. However, recent highs have been lost as geopolitical risks have decreased. Despite this, options continue to show a bearish tilt towards puts, with the US Oil Fund experiencing its largest daily outflow on record. The demand outlook for oil remains uncertain, with weakness seen in some refined products. Profit margins for converting crude oil into diesel in Asia are near their lowest level in almost a year. All of these factors make it challenging to predict future price movements.