A recent economic study published in the magazine Nature by the Potsdam Climate Impact Research Institute in Germany predicts that the effects of climate change will reduce average income by 18% in Spain in 2050. This reduction is higher than in France (13%) and Italy (15%). The study author, Maximilian Kotz, explains that Spain is more vulnerable to heat due to its warmer climate compared to other European countries. This will lead to stronger declines in agricultural and labor productivity, especially in the hottest regions of Spain.
The study also highlights the impact of changes in precipitation, which can be intensified by other climatic extremes such as storms or forest fires. The report, based on data from 1,600 regions worldwide over the past four decades, projects income reductions in most regions, with North America and Europe also being affected. However, the most significant impact is expected in the south of Asia and Africa, where climatic conditions are already close to those causing productivity loss.
According to Kotz, every year $38 billion are lost globally due to climate change. By mid-century, the world economy could see a 19% reduction in income. The study combines empirical models with climate simulators to make these projections, taking into account how climate impacts have affected the economy in the past. PIK scientist Leonie Wenz emphasizes that countries least responsible for climate change will suffer a 60% greater loss of income compared to higher-income countries and 40% more than countries with higher emissions.
The research underscores the urgent need for global action to mitigate the impacts of climate change and protect economies from significant losses in the future. As nations continue their efforts towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting their economies for a changing climate, it is crucial that they consider not only environmental concerns but also economic implications.