US Economy Faces Potential Recession, Says QI Research CEO
According to QI Research CEO Danielle DiMartino Booth, the US economy may already be experiencing a recession. Booth argues that a downturn has hit, with rising job losses and downside labor revisions being key indicators. She says that a recession was triggered in October 2023 based on one unemployment indicator.
Recent data has continued to paint a bleak picture of the labor market, with April’s job report delivering fresh weaknesses. Nonfarm payrolls added significantly below estimates, and unemployment ticked up slightly to 3.9%. Booth noted an acceleration of job cut announcements, with analysts projecting rising recession risk and a potential hard landing by the end of the year.
Booth highlighted changes in severance packages as another sign that the US economy is facing challenges. She notes that severance packages offered have dropped from six to nine-month packages offered in 2023 to 60 to 90 days currently. With job losses on the rise and recession risks looming, the US economy faces challenges that could further impact the labor market.